Who Should Be Higher In the NCAA Rankings?
Who Should Be Higher In the NCAA Rankings?
Which D1 NCAA wrestlers are better than their FloWrestling rankings suggest?
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Here at FloWrestling, we strive to make our NCAA rankings as accurate, objective, and consistent as possible. And by 'we' I mean me and Bratke.
But also, rankings are hard, and there are a lot of different ways to approach figuring out the exact order. Thus, Flo places wrestlers in a specific sequence to which other people object.
And that's fine!
Our rankings are not predictions or projections. They are based on data and results, and ultimately, the number one goal is to be able to explain why we did what we did to any coach, wrestler, or fan using objective and consistent reasoning.
This will naturally lead reasonable people to reasonably disagree about both the rankings and the process by which we arrived at them. And that's also fine!
No matter what process, someone will always be left unsatisfied. Which is, by the way, a FloWrestling promise: someone will always be unsatisfied!
Quite often people tell me that they believe a wrestler is better than their ranking. And often I agree with them!
Which is why I decided to blog about wrestlers who I think are better than their ranking would suggest, even though myself and Kyle are the ones doing the rankings.
125 Pounds
#15 Dylan Ragusin, Michigan: We do NOT factor freestyle results into our folkstyle rankings, so Dylan doesn't get credit for beasted our in the 57kg bracket at 2020 Senior Nationals. As a true freshman, Ragusin's best collegiate folkstyle win is Brock Hudkins. Very good, but not good enough to crack the top 10, even though he is clearly an All-American caliber wrestler.
Watch Ragusin beat NCAA champ Darian Cruz at 2020 Senior Nationals:
#21 Robbie Howard, Penn State: Another true freshman, Howard only has one collegiate match to his name. It's a decent one, a win over Michigan 2020 national qualifier Jack Medley, but still not enough for a top 20 ranking.
125 is a young man's weight class, though, and it's quite common to see low-ranked freshmen make deep runs in the postseason. So don't sleep on these two!
133 Pounds
#6 Korbin Myers, Virginia Tech: Though he is in the top 10, Myers is still undervalued in my opinion. The Hokie senior has majored his last three opponents (all ranked), and hasn't given up a takedown all season long.
Injuries kept the Carlie, Pennsylvania native out of action all last season, but now that he's healthy and looking as tough as ever, I think he's ready to compete with the top tier of #1 Fix, #2 RBY, & #3 DeSanto at 133.
141 Pounds
#2 Jaydin Eierman, Iowa or #3 Nick Lee, Penn State: Take your pick. Both have been more dominant this season than Sebastian Rivera. And while I stand by our decision to rank Rivera #1 based on comparing his sterling resume with the rest of the field, the Scarlet Knight senior by way of Northwestern beat Purdue's unranked Parker Filius 7-6 this season, whereas Eierman pinned the same Filius him in the second period.
But we don't factor in margin of victory (how could we ever do that consistently, amongst the 300 or so ranked and watchlisted wrestlers?), so we are leaving Seabass at #1, even though we'd favor Lee or Eierman in a match against Rivera at this point.
Lee vs Eierman is a tougher match to call, but luckily I don't have to pick that match right now so just gonna punt on this one until after Big Tens.
149 Pounds
#18 Andrew Alirez, Northern Colorado: Once again, it's freestyle success that leads us to believe Alirez is better than our rankings methodology has him relegated. A folkstyle resume that includes a loss to Jaden Abas at the 2020 Southern Scuffle and zero top 15 wins over the last 2 seasons, however, keeps the Greely, Colorado native from climbing any higher in our NCAA rankings.
Watch Alirez beat current #9 Yahya Thomas of Northwestern at 2020 Senior nationals:
157 Pounds
#16 Jacori Teemer, Arizona State: Teemer is a prime example of talent and potential not matching up to career results. The long Island native beat both Sammy Sasso and Brayton Lee when they were all true freshmen but Teemer hasn't had a win of the same caliber in the last two seasons. Losses to Oklahoma's Justin Thomas in the same time frame keeps him buried in the rankings.
165 Pounds
#2 Alex Marinelli, Iowa: And now we get to discuss everyone's favorite topic: whether or not to count injury default results for rankings purposes.
We all had a wonderful time with this last year when Austin DeSanto defaulted to Roman Bravo-Young in a very highly viewed dual meet. Yet no one wanted to talk about when Christian Brunner defaulted to Jordan Pagano, or the year before when Jason Nolf defaulted to John Van Brill.
Last week, we had another high-profile injury default, when #1 Mekhi Lewis withdrew from his match with #6 Jake Wentzel while trailing 0-4 at the end of the second period.
Would Wentzel have beaten Lewis if they continued? Probably. Could Lewis have won if he didn't have to default due to injury? Obviously. So we don't assume the result and count it as a no-contest. I'm confident this is the path that leads to less personal bias and inconsistencies. Others disagree, and again, that's all good!
I just hope everyone that wants Wentzel's win to count for rankings is equally as vocal about Kellyn March winning by injury defaults over #14 Jared Van Vleet.
In any event, we're not changing our rankings methodology, but I will agree with anyone that now thinks (or has always thought) that Marinelli is the most likely wrestler to win a national championship at 165-pounds this year.
174 Pounds
#6 Logan Massa, Michigan: A head-to-head loss to Carter Starocci is what moved Massa down to #6. But a transitive win over DJ Washington is what makes us think Massa is better than his current ranking. Massa pinned Washington this season, whereas Washington beat 10-9 in Starocci's first varsity match for the Nittany Lions.
Massa also had the riding time advantage going into the third period in his match against Starocci and I think could have taken neutral and won, but that's neither here nor there for rankings purposes. Massa lost and it is reflected in the rankings as such.
I still think Massa is the most likely person to join Kemerer in the finals of the 2021 NCAAs. I could be wrong, though. It's happened before!
Watch Massa tech the current 165-pound #4 Anthony Valencia in the 2020 Senior Nationals finals:
184 Pounds
#4 Aaron Brooks, Penn State: I've been hearing about this ranking for the last two years. And I understand why. Aaron Brooks is very good! In fact, I think he's the best 184-pounder in the NCAA right now, and is my pick to win a title.
I also think Trent Hidlay, Hunter Bolen and Louie DePrez have a less greater* than zero shot at winning a title, and would give the field positive odds as well. But with regards to the rankings, Brooks' best win over the last two seasons is either Weiler or Caffey and his worst loss is Venz. Bolen, Hidlay and DePrez all have better wins and no bad losses. Thus, Brooks is below all three.
Then there's the DePrez vs Hidlay debate, which I'm not going to address right now but it's another debatable topic, so maybe next blog.
Watch Brooks defeat Trent Hidlay in the 2017 Fargo Junior Freestyle Finals:
*I definitely think it's possible that Bolen, Hidley, or DePrez win a national title (or someone from the field for that matter). Apologies for the confusing typo.
197 Pounds
#12 Tanner Sloan, South Dakota State: I've heard about as many questions and complaints about this ranking as I have about Brooks. And I also understand why! In fact, we may have to move Sloan up due to Stephen Buchanan's second win over Noah Adams.
Although that's the difficulty with ratings when there's parity in a weight class. Adams was the number one for most of this season and last, so a win over him is huge. But as soon as he drops in the rankings, the wins become less significant. And the secondary factors, i.e. the guys who beat guys who beat him, become even less significant.
In any event, whether Sloan is #12 or #9 or #6, I see no reason why he can't challenge for, let alone win, the national title at 197.
Watch Tanner Sloan defeat West Virginia's Noah Adams in the finals of 2020's U23 Nationals:
285 Pounds
Jodan Wood, Lehigh: We weren't sure if we'd see the Gilbertsville, Pennsylvania native this season, but thankfully he took the mat for the Mountain Hawks at the very end of January. Wood finished last season ranked #7 and was fourth on the podium the season before that, so he's got an impressive resume.
Wood's loss a little over a week ago to Ethan Laird wasn't a "bad" loss, but Laird never climbed higher than the teens while at 197, and so with limited results to go off of, Wood falls to #11 in a loaded heavyweight field, despite being capable of much more.
Disagree? Think I've failed to mention a deserving wrestler? You are not alone!
One thing I've discovered is that the more partisan the fan, the more dissatisfied they will be with any particular set of rankings. And NCAA wrestling does not lack for partisanship!
So hit me up on Twitter (@SpeyWrestle) or email (andrew.spey@flosports.tv) with your thoughts. I enjoy your feedback. Indeed, I thrive off it.