It's conference tournament week! How wonderful!

287 bids to the NCAA Championship will be earned at those conference tournaments, with the other 43 at-large bids getting delivered sometime after that. 

In this blog, we will look at conference brackets that present the most difficult challenges to earn a bid, so basically, the brackets with more nationally ranked wrestlers than there are automatic qualifying bids to be had. 

But first, some background on the qualification process.

Background on the Qualification Process

After dual meet season concludes, the NCAA takes a look at every D1 starter at each weight class and, using three criteria --winning percentage, RPI (a rating based on a wrestler's opponents' winning percentages) and the coaches' poll-- determines the 28 or 29 top-ranked wrestlers in each weight class. 

There are more rules about who is eligible to get ranked and which matches count and which don't but we don't have time to get into all that right now. 

The committee then looks at who 'earned' those top rankings and assigns automatic qualification bids to that conference in each respective weight class. 

For example, three of the top 29 125-pounders were in the ACC. So now the top three placers at the ACC tournament at 125-pounds earn bids to the NCAA tournament. 

If you don't place in the top three of the ACC tournament at 125-pounds you can still earn a place in the national championship, however, you now have to be selected for one of the four at-large bids available at that weight. 

Want to know who earned each bid at each weight for their respective conferences? Good news! Seton Hall Pirate has figured that out for you! Check out his handiwork here.

Conference champs in weight classes where no one has earned an AQ spot still go to the tournament, however, that leaves little margin for error for anyone who doesn't win a conference title as the odds of getting an at-large bid by anyone else at that weight is vanishingly slim. 

If you scroll down you will see our breakdown of the brackets that will have the toughest competition for those automatic qualifying bids, however, if you don't want to scroll and would rather read someone else's breakdown of what to expect from conference weekend, click here for analysis by the excellent Rich Perez!

Also, by the way, CR = Coaches Rankings; Flo = FloWrestling Ranking; & AQ = Automatic Qualifying bid

125 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: SoCon

Three contenders for two AQs

The three wrestlers in the honorable mentions will have little margin for error as they battle for two AQ spots. If one or more doesn't make it to the finals they'll be walking a tight rope until the third-place bout, as earning an at-large bid will be dicey for any of them. 

Four more contenders for the at-large bids

#16 Brody Teske is the biggest surprise to not earn a bid for his respective conference in the weight. However, the Big 12 has seven ranked wrestlers battled for six spots, with Oklahoma's Joey Prata as the lowest-ranked (22 in Flo's ranking, 20 in the coaches' poll) so as long as an unranked wrestler doesn't steal a bid in that tournament, there's a good chance the odd man out will earn an at-large invite. 

133 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: Big 12

Eight contenders for six bids

As long as he takes the mat in Tulsa, Daton Fix is assured at least an at-large bid. After that, however, things are up for grabs in the Big 12 133-pound bracket. Haiden Drury would appear to be in the best shape according to the polls but only got the #6 preseed at the conference tournament.

Unranked Job Greenwood of Wyoming, Connor Brown of Mizzou, and Sidney Flores of Air Force could also be a factor in this crowded Big 12 field. 

Five more contenders for the at-large bids

#15 Hines as well as #16 Koderhandt of Navy and #12 Colaiocco of Penn will be the main contenders for EIWA's two auto-bids, although an at-large bid is likely if one of the three doesn't nab an AQ in Ithaca at EIWAs. 

141 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: Big Ten

11 contenders for seven bids

This one is just silly. Red is a three-time All-American (four if you count 2020) having a very solid year, yet somehow just barely missed the cut to earn a qualifying bid for the Big Ten. Ditto for Stevan Micic. 

Duncan and Tal Shahar also, somewhat less surprisingly, missed the mark. That is going to leave several very talented Big Ten competitors hoping for an at-large bid, and put even more pressure on any other athlete who doesn't qualify for the NCAAs at their respective conference tournament. 

Another Gnarly Bracket: MAC

Five contenders for three bids

Confounding everyone's tournament hopes at 141 is unranked Koleno and Hagan earning bids for the MAC, which has three other ranked wrestler in the mix.

That means at least three from this group will be fighting with at least four ranked Big Ten wrestlers for one of just five at-large bids available. 

Four more contenders for at-large bids

Also these guys didn't earn bids for their conference. This weight class is perhaps the most brutal of them all, at least with regards to qualifying for the NCAA. Just Brutal.

149 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: ACC

Five contenders for four AQs

Sherman had one of the most difficult schedules of anyone in the NCAA. The 2021 All-American took losses to the #2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 & 13th ranked wrestlers in the nation, resulting in a record that did not earn a bid for the ACC (which have already released their brackets, by the way). 

Sherman has a quarterfinal bout with Verkleeren. A win there and he'd either have to beat Tariq Wilson to make the finals, or win a consolation bout (likely against Pitt's #6 seed Dan Mancini) to guarantee a spot in the NCAA tournament. 

A loss to Verkleeren and Sherman would have to go through Finesilver or Andonian in his consolation bout to punch a ticket to Detroit. 

Five more contenders for at-large bids

PJ Ogunsanya will have a tough road in the EIWA's to earn one of the four bids up for grabs in that conference tourney. Assuming Yianni places in the top four (a pretty safe assumption) PJ will still have HM Artalona of Penn and unranked Fongaro of Columbia and Brignola of Lehigh (the latter of whom both earned bids for the EIWA) to contend with. 

Crooks will have to try and find room on the top 3 Pac-12 podium steps that All-Americans #7 Parco & #12 Abas will be gunning for, as well as #17 Legend Lamer. 

157 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: MAC

Five contenders for two AQs

There's bound to be heartbreak at the MAC Championship this weekend, as five wrestlers named in either poll will be competing for just two AQ spots. Avery Bassett of GMU and Anthony Gibson of NIU could also be in the mix. 

Lovett and Slivka earned the top two preseeds but there will be no easy path to the finals and a trip to Detroit at this event. 

Five more contenders for at-large bids

Brady Berge only wrestled a couple of matches down at 157 this year, and while he is undoubtedly an All-American contender (he beat 2021 All-American Cam Amine this season up at 165), per the rules, he did not earn a bid for the Big Ten, and will have to secure a bid by placing in the top 7 at Big Tens. 

There are five Big Ten wrestlers in the top 12, then #24 Garrett Model and HM Chase Saldate. One of those eight wrestlers will have to rely on an at-large bid.  

165 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: Big 12

Nine contenders for four AQs

This is one of the silliest of all the brackets. You could definitely make a case that the Big 12 should have seven or eight AQs at 165 with the amount of talent therein. Travis Wittlake not earning a bid was particularly surprising.

Now, at least four wrestlers in Flo's or the coache's top 33 will have to rely on an at-large bid to make it to the Tournament.

Four more contenders for the at-large bids

Things are pretty stingy in the Big Ten as well, with nine wrestlers in either poll but only seven AQ spots available. Khrachla, Marinelli & Hamiti are locks to at least get an at-large, with Cam Amine fairly safe as well. 

That means Braunagel, Edsell, Carlson, Fish & Wilson will be in a dog fight for the other three auto qualifying spots. 

174 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: SoCon

Two contenders for one AQ

Once again we see the SoCon produce more ranked wrestlers than they were allotted AQs. Flitz has a win this season over Clay Lautt of UNC (who beat Hayden Hidlay), and Murphy made it to the bloodround last season. Both wrestlers will hopefully find themselves competing at the NCAA tournament one way or another. 

Five more contenders for the at-large bids

Austin Brenner was the biggest surprise in the division for not earning his respective conference a bid. With 8 AQs though he'll have an opportunity to snag one from someone who did. 

DJ Shannon and Andrew McNally will have to do the same to one of the other eight ranked Big Ten competitors who earned a bid. No easy path to NCAAs! 

184 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: Big 12

Seven contenders for four AQs

The Big 12 Championship will have another bracket with a couple more ranked entrants than allocated AQs. Keckeisen is a heavy favorite to at least make the finals, but after that things get murkier for the competitors. 

Coleman is favored to make the finals, but he also just recently dropped a match to Jeremiah Kent. And two-time All-American Geer recently lost to Keegan Moore. All seven of the ranked wrestlers plus the very tough DJ Parker of NDSU received top 8 preseeds, so expect a slugfest in the quarterfinals. 

Another Gnarly Bracket: EIWA

The EIWA 184-pound bracket is arguably gnarlier than the Big 12 even, with less top teir talent but a more out-of-whack ratio of ranked wrestlers to allocated AQs. At least four of the wrestlers that made either the coaches' or Flo's rankings will have to rely on an at-large bid to compete at Nationals.

One more contender for the at-large bids

Assad didn't earn an AQ for the Big Ten, but he'll be favored to make the tournament regardless. The conference already has 12 bids for this weight class. Getting 13 of the 14 Big Ten postseason entrants to Detroit is a very real possibility.  

197 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: Big Ten

14 contenders for 12 AQs

You can't really blame the formula for only distributing 12 AQs to the Big Ten at 197 (similar to how things worked out at 184). That's a very high number, however, even if all 14 entrants are ranked in the top 33, we should probably leave at least some mystery as to who qualifies, if for no other reason but to inject a little suspense into the tournament. 

This entire 197-pound division is a true mad man and the Big Ten is perhaps the maddest bracket of them all. 

Four more contenders for the at-large bids

Shaw and Howard did not earn bids for the ACC, but they could play spoiler and place in the top 3, denying one or two of Bonaccorsi, Trumble, or Aiello an automatic qualification to the NCAAs. 

285 Pounds

Allocations

Gnarliest Bracket: Big 12

10 Contenders for 6 AQs

It appears that injuries will keep Brian Andrews of Wyoming from wrestling this postseason but the Big 12 can still boast double digit ranked wrestlers in either poll. Big 12 is definitely heavy chevy country. 

Hendrickson is poised for a break out season, with Elam not far behind him. After that, it's anyone's guess who will emerge from the wreckage of this monstrous bracket with one of the mere six bids available. 

Five more contenders for the at-large bids

Doyle appears the safest of the rest of the ranked heavyweights that didn't earn a bid for their respective conference, and will likely get an at-large invite if everything goes according to chalk in all the conference tournaments. 

But we don't know if things will go chalk, do we? No, we don't, and that's why we will all be watching intently to see what happens this weekend!