165 pounds at the NCAA Tournament is one of the deepest and best weights of the year. Take a look below at a full preview with predictions of this incredible weight class.

The Favorite

Cal Poly’s Evan Wick has put together an incredible season that includes three wins over defending national champion Shane Griffith. On top of those wins, Wick is 18-0 on the year and is the #1 seed in the NCAA bracket. Wick should cruise to the quarter-finals where he’ll be a big favorite against either Philip Conigliaro or Peyton Hall. Again, Wick should be a big favorite in that match and reach the semifinals where he will likely meet either Shane Griffith or Dean Hamiit. 

It’s not ideal to wrestle an opponent as quality as Griffith for the 4th time in the NCAA semifinals. However, Wick has clearly proven he has the upper hand over the defending national champion. The matchup with Hamiti is also a fascinating one in that Hamiti is one of the few 165-pound wrestlers who might be able to match Wick’s length and athleticism. Whether it’s Griffith or Hamiti, Wick’s combination of neutral offense, leg-attack defense, riding ability, and scrambling should prove too much for any opponent he’ll face on his way to the finals.

The bottom side of the bracket has two matchups that could potentially stand in the way of Wick winning a national championship - Alex Marinelli or Keegan O’Toole. Marinelli holds a career record of 4-1 over Wick, with Wick’s last winning coming 4 years ago at the 2018 NCAA Tournament. Stylistically, O’Toole is an interesting matchup for Wick and might be the only wrestler in the field who can out scramble Wick. Either way, Wick will need to wrestle his best to end his career with a national title in Detroit.

Wick's first win of the season over Shane Griffith in the finals of the 2021 CKLV

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Other Contenders

165 is one of the deepest weights in the country and the number of legitimate title contenders proves that point. First up - Keegan O’Toole. The junior world champ has cruised to a 20-0 record with 15 bonus point wins - 6 pins, 2 tech falls, and 7 major decisions. O’Toole’s creativity and ability to wrestle at a high level in every position make him a dangerous opponent for everyone in the 165-pound field. O’Toole will certainly have his work cut out for him. At the 2 seed, O’Toole’s path to the finals is about as tough as one could imagine with potential successive matches against Anthony Valencia, Carson Kharcla, and Alex Marinelli.

Speaking of Alex Marinelli, for the past 5 years he’s been one of the best 165-pound wrestlers in the country and is looking to win his first national title in Detroit. Though he’s fallen short in his previous three attempts, Marinelli has all the skills to defeat anyone in this 165-pound bracket. Marinelli has the style and discipline to handle the likes of Evan Wick, Keegan O’Toole, and Dean Hamiti. And it’s worth mentioning again - Marinelli is 4-1 (with 4 wins in a row) against the #1 seed Evan Wick! 

While the #4 seed Dean Hamiti is a slight underdog against some of the top competitors in this bracket, he’s proven he can wrestle with everyone in the country and knows how to win. Hamiti is 24-2 on the year with 19 bonus point wins and his only losses coming to Alex Marinelli (8-5 and 3-2). Hamiti wrestles at a high pace and has the ability to end a match or score back points on anyone (he has 7 pins and 6 techs this year). We’ve seen true freshmen make unpredictable runs to a national title in the past and Hamiti has proven to be the best true freshman in the country this year.

Defending national champion Shane Griffith should not be underestimated in this bracket. Though he’s the 5 seed and has 3 losses to Wick, Griffith showed last season that he wrestles his best on the biggest stage. He’ll certainly need to replicate his performance from the 2021 NCAAs to win the title this year.

Keegan O’Toole’s Southern Scuffle finals’ win against Peyton Hall

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Sleepers And Landmines

There are a number of guys in the 165 field who could blow up this bracket. The top of this list is returning national finalist and #10 seed Jake Wentzel. While he’s been down a bit since his runner-up performance, Wentzel is set to hit Carson Kharchla in the second round and likely wrestle Keegan O’Toole in the quarters. Wentzel lost a tight, 4-3 match to Kharchla earlier this year but took out O’Toole last year in the quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament, 9-6. It might be unlikely, but Wentzel is capable of putting together another deep run at this year’s NCAA tournament.

Anthony Valencia is the 18 seed! Should he win his first match, he’ll likely take on Keegan O’Toole in the second round. The two wrestled last month in a match that was 6-6 in the third period before O’Toole locked up a cradle to pin Valencia. The Sun Devil has also had 2 close losses to Shane Griffith this year and a win over the aforementioned Jake Wentzel. Valencia is a long shot to win a title but if he has the perfect match, he’s capable of notching a big upset or two.

Highlights of Wentzel’s win over Keegan O’Toole at last year’s NCAA Tournament:

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Their Own Island

It feels wrong not to mention Cam Amine or Carson Kharchla in this preview - so I created a special section for them. Because of their seasons and placement in the bracket, I don’t view Amine and Kharchla as threats to make the finals but instead strong All-American contenders, with the potential to knock off one of the stronger contenders. However, they’re also not “sleepers or landmines” because they have quality wins and are on everyone’s radar. Therefore they have their own category - "Amine and Kharchla Island."

At the 6th and 7th seed respectively, Amine and Kharchla both have solid wins but significant losses to give me pause in picking them to make the finals. Amine is coming off his runner-up finish at Big 10s where he defeated Kharchla in overtime. However, Amine also has losses this season to Bubba Wilson, Brady Berge, Julian Ramirez, and Evan Wick. Kharhcla has a win over Marinelli this year but his losses to Amine and Hamiti at Big 10s exploited some of his vulnerabilities. They both could prove me wrong but I expect Kharchla and Amine to place in the 4th-Round of 12 range at NCAAs.

Champ Prediction

There are a number of potential finalists but I’m predicting the 1 and 2 seeds, Evan Wick and Keegan O’Toole, navigate their way through this insane bracket to the finals. If they do meet in the finals, this matchup has the potential to be the most entertaining and competitive match of the entire tournament. Both Wick and O’Toole are incredibly diverse in their offensive abilities and able to scramble in and out of any position. Predicting the outcome of this potential match is a nightmare but I’m going with Keegan O’Toole. The Missouri Tiger proved over the summer at junior worlds that he’s capable of performing his best when the pressure is the highest and I expect him to do just that on Saturday night in Detroit.

Full Predictions:

1st - Keegan O’Toole (Missouri)

2nd - Evan Wick (Cal Poly)

3rd - Alex Marinelli (Iowa)

4th - Carson Kharchla (Ohio State)

5th - Shane Griffith (Stanford)

6th - Dean Hamiti (Wisconsin)

7th - Peyton Hall (West Virginia)

8th - Cam Amine (Michigan)

R12 - Jake Wentzel (Pittsburgh)

R12- Joshua Ogunsanya (Columbia)

R12 - Julian Ramirez (Cornell)

R12 - Philip Conigliaro (Harvard)