What Seed Do Sleeper NCAA Finalists & Champs Historically Come From?
What Seed Do Sleeper NCAA Finalists & Champs Historically Come From?
Need a sleeper pick? Check out the data to see where in the bracket they're likely to come from.
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First and foremost a shoutout and thank you to Brock Hite for both the content idea and collecting most of the data. Every year one or two wrestlers completely shock the country and make the finals or even win it from the 6+ seed. This data set tracks the lowest-seeded finalist for the past 22 NCAA Championships. If anyone made the finals from a seed of ten or higher they were also included in the table.
YEAR | WRESTLER | TEAM | WEIGHT | SEED | FINISH | BRACKET |
2021 | Shane Griffith | Stanford | 165 lbs | 8th | 1st | Top |
2019 | Mekhi Lewis | Virginia Tech | 165 lbs | 8th | 1st | Top |
2018 | Ronnie Perry | Lock Haven | 149lbs | 15th | 2nd | Bottom |
2017 | Ethan Lizak | Minnesota | 125lbs | 6th | 2nd | Bottom |
2017 | George DiCamillo | Virginia | 141lbs | 6th | 2nd | Bottom |
2016 | Bryce Meredith | Wyoming | 141lbs | 14th | 2nd | Bottom |
2016 | Myles Martin | Ohio State | 174lbs | 11th | 1st | Bottom |
2015 | Zeke Moisey | West Virginia | 125lbs | US | 2nd | Bottom |
2015 | Cody Brewer | Oklahoma | 133lbs | 13th | 1st | Top |
2014 | Joshua Kindig | Oklahoma State | 149lbs | 11th | 2nd | Bottom |
2013 | Michael McMullen | Northwestern | 285lbs | 5th | 2nd | Top |
2012 | Nico Megaludis | Penn State | 125lbs | 10th | 2nd | Bottom |
2012 | Brandon Hatchett | Lehigh | 165lbs | 11th | 2nd | Bottom |
2011 | Quentin Wright | Penn State | 184lbs | 9th | 1st | Top |
2010 | Chase Pami | Cal Poly | 157lbs | 7th | 2nd | Bottom |
2009 | Jarrod King | Edinboro | 165lbs | 12th | 1st | Top |
2008 | Jordan Leen | Cornell | 157lbs | 8th | 1st | Top |
2007 | Kurt Backes | Iowa State | 197lbs | 9th | 2nd | Top |
2006 | Brian Stith | Arizona State | 157lbs | 10th | 2nd | Bottom |
2005 | Joe Johnston | Iowa | 157lbs | 8th | 2nd | Top |
2004 | Ryan Fulsaas | Iowa | 197lbs | 10th | 2nd | Bottom |
2003 | Carl Fronhofer | Pitt | 174lbs | US | 2nd | Top |
2002 | Rob Rohn | Lehigh | 184lbs | 8th | 1st | Top |
2001 | Pat Quirk | Illinois | 197lbs | 7th | 2nd | Bottom |
2000 | Carl Perry | Illinois | 141lbs | 8th | 1st | Top |
2000 | Steve Garland | Virginia | 125lbs | 8th | 2nd | Top |
1999 | Tony Davis | Northern Iowa | 149lbs | 6th | 2nd | Bottom |
Surprisingly, 33% of the time the low seed goes ahead and doesn't just make the finals, but win. Cody Brewer, out of the 13 seed was the lowest seed to win.
SEED | # OF FINALS |
8th | 7 |
6th | 3 |
11th | 3 |
10th | 3 |
US | 2 |
9th | 2 |
7th | 2 |
5th | 1 |
15th | 1 |
14th | 1 |
13th | 1 |
12th | 1 |
Now, let's take a look at weight.
WEIGHT | # OF FINALS |
165lbs | 4 |
157lbs | 4 |
125lbs | 4 |
197lbs | 3 |
149lbs | 3 |
141lbs | 3 |
184lbs | 2 |
174lbs | 2 |
285lbs | 1 |
133lbs | 1 |
It's unsurprising to see 285 at the bottom, but I would have expected 133 to be a little higher up on this list.
Now, let's take a look at paths. This data is only of the lowest-seeded finalist from each year. Additional double-digit seeds are not included. Surprisingly, most of the time (13/22) the low seed upsets either the 1 or 2 seed and then makes it to the finals.
Year | R32 | R16 | Quarter | Semi | Average |
1999 | 20 | 11 | 20 | 7 | 14.5 |
2000 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 20 | 12.5 |
2001 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 13.25 |
2002 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 4 | 16 |
2003 | 20 | 8 | 20 | 12 | 15 |
2004 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
2005 | 20 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 11.5 |
2006 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 11 | 17.75 |
2007 | 20 | 8 | 20 | 4 | 13 |
2008 | 20 | 20 | 1 | 12 | 13.25 |
2009 | 20 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 13 |
2010 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 20 | 13 |
2011 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 10.25 |
2012 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 12.5 |
2013 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 9.25 |
2014 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 13.75 |
2015 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7.5 |
2016 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 7.75 |
2017 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 13.75 |
2018 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 10.75 |
2019 | 20 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 11.25 |
2021 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 8.25 |
Another shoutout to Brock Hite for collecting the information below.
1999: Tony Davis, Northern Iowa, 149, 6th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Stan Spoor, Clarion, dec 5-4
(11) Ryan Bernholz, Lehigh, md 11-2
(US) Marc Hoffer, American, dec 11-5
(7) Adam Tirapelle, Illinois, dec 8-3
(1) TJ Williams, Iowa, loss dec 5-3
2000: Steve Garland, Virginia, 125, 8th Seed, 2nd; Carl Perry, Illinois, 141, 8th Seed, 1st
Paths:
(US) Adrian Tramutola, Tennessee-Chattanooga, md 8-0
(9) Michael Kawamura, Arizona State, dec 7-3
(1) Jody Strittmatter, Iowa, dec 9-7 OT
(US) TJ Hill, Cal State-Fullerton, dec 6-5 TB
(2) Jeremy Hunter, Penn State, loss dec 7-3
(US) PJ Bory, Virginia, tf 18-2
(US) Jeremy Hart, Appalachian State, dec 9-7
(1) Doug Schwab, Iowa, dec 7-5
(4) Mark Angle, Clarion, dec 2-0
(2) Michael Lightner, Oklahoma, dec 5-3
2001: Pat Quirk, Illinois, 197, 8th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Dave Shunamon, Edinboro, dec 5-2
(US) Jason Payne, Northern Iowa, md 14-6
(2) Brad Vering, Nebraska, dec 8-4
(11) Mike Fickell, Pennsylvania, dec 8-4
(1) Mark Munoz, Oklahoma State, loss dec 5-3
2002: Rob Rohn, Lehigh, 184, 8th Seed, 1st
Path:
(US) Blake Kaplan, Ohio State, dec 8-4
(US) Josh Millard, Lock Haven, fall 0:25
(US) Ralph DeNisco, Wisconsin, fall 3:19
(4) Jessman Smith, Iowa, fall 2:57
(6) Josh Lambrecht, Oklahoma, fall 6:47
2003: Carl Fronhofer, Pitt, 174, Unseeded, 2nd
Path:
(9) Blake Kaplan, Ohio State, fall 4:46
(US) Curtis Yeager, Millersville, md 11-3
(8) Brian Glynn, Illinois, dec 3-2tb
(US) Ralph Everett, Hofstra, dec 4-1
(12) Shane Webster, Oregon, dec 3-2
(3) Robbie Waller, Oklahoma, loss dec 7-2
2004: Ryan Fulsaas, Iowa, 197, 10th Seed, 2nd
Path:
Bye
(7) Chris Jones, Drexel, dec 3-1
(2) Chris Skretkowicz, Hofstra, dec 7-6
(3) Sean Stender, Northern Iowa, dec 8-7
(1) Damion Hahn, Minnesota, loss dec 6-2
2005: Joe Johnston, Iowa, 157, 8th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Kevin Ward, Oklahoma State, md 18-8
(US) CP Schlatter, Minnesota, dec 5-3
(1) Alex Tirapelle, Illinois, dec 6-5
(5) Jake Percival, Ohio, dec 9-8
(2) Ryan Bertin, Michigan, loss dec 8-5
2006: Brian Stith, Arizona State, 157, 10th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Jacob Yost, Tennessee-Chattanooga, dec 7-1
(US) Tony Hook, Oregon State, dec 2-1TB
(US) Andrew Flanagan, Harvard, md 8-0
(11) Derek Zinck, Lehigh, dec 5-3
(5) Ben Cherrington, Boise State, loss dec 7-3
2007: Kurt Backes, Iowa State, 197, 9th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Jacob Bryce, North Dakota State, md 16-4
(8) Joel Flaggert, Oklahoma, dec 3-1OT
(US) Nick Roy, Rutgers, dec 5-3
(4) Phil Davis, Penn State, dec 5-4
(2) Josh Glenn, American, loss dec 6-4
2008: Jordan Leen, Cornell, 157, 8th Seed, 1st
Path:
(US) Ryan Hluschak, Drexel, dec 4-3
(US) Brian Letters, Maryland, dec 4-1
(1) Gregor Gillespie, Edinboro, dec 8-6
(12) Josh Zupancic, Stanford, dec 9-2
(2) Michael Poeta, Illinois, dec 5-4
2009: Jarrod King, Edinboro, 165, 12th Seed, 1st
Path:
(US) Rex Kendle, Michigan State, fall 1:04
(US) Nick Amuchastegui, Stanford, dec 5-1
(4) Moza Fay, Northern Iowa, dec 12-5
(8) Jonathan Reeder, Iowa State, 6-6TB
(2) Andrew Howe, Wisconsin, dec 3-2
2010: Chase Pami, Cal Poly, 157, 7th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Kurt Kinser, Indiana, dec 3-2
(10) Shane Vernon, Oklahoma, dec 7-5
(2) Adam Hall, Boise State, dec 5-2
(US) Justin Lister, Binghamton, md 13-5
(1) JP O’Connor, Harvard, loss dec 6-4
2011: Quentin Wright, Penn State, 184, 9th Seed, 1st
Path:
(US) Jon Fausey, Virginia, dec 8-4
(8) Kevin Steinhaus, Minnesota, dec 8-4
(1) Chris Honeycutt, Edinboro, dec 7-3
(12) Grant Gambrall, Iowa, fall 3:53
(2) Robert Hamlin, Lehigh, dec 5-2
2012: Brandon Hatchett, Lehigh, 165, 11th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) James Brundage, Rider, md 10-0
(US) Dallas Bailey, Oklahoma State, dec 4-2
(3) Andrew Sorenson, Iowa State, dec 7-3
(7) Josh Asper, Maryland, dec 5-4
(1) David Taylor, Penn State, loss tf 22-7
2013: Michael McMullen, Northwestern, 285, 5th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Dan Scherer, Stanford, dec 6-2
(12) Adam Chalfant, Indiana, dec 7-5
(4) Chad Hanke, Oregon State, dec 5-3
(1) Dom Bradley, Missouri, dec 3-1OT
(2) Anthony Nelson, Minnesota, loss dec 6-2
2014: Joshua Kindig, Oklahoma State, 149, 11th Seed, 2nd
Path:
(US) Ian Paddock, Ohio State, dec 9-4
(6) Jake Sueflohn, Nebraska, dec 7-5
(14) Scott Sakaguchi, Oregon State, dec 7-5
(15) Mitch Minotti, Lehigh, dec 5-2
(5) Jason Tsirtsis, Northwestern, loss dec 3-1OT
2015: Zeke Moisey, West Virginia, 125, Unseeded, 2nd
Path:
(15) Chasen Tolbert, Utah Valley, md 14-6
(2) Nahshon Garrett, Cornell, dec 5-2
(7) Edward Klimara, Oklahoma State, dec 5-2
(6) Thomas Gilman, Iowa, fall 0:52
(4) Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State, loss dec 9-5
2016: Bryce Meredith, Wyoming, 141, 14th, 2nd
Path:
(US) Robert Mathers, Arizona State, md 16-3
(3) Kevin Jack, NC State, dec 5-4
(6) Micah Jordan, Ohio State, dec 5-2
(2) Joey McKenna, Stanford, dec 5-3
(1) Dean Heil, Oklahoma State, loss dec 3-2
2017: Ethan Lizak, Minnesota, 125, 6th, 2nd; George DiCamillo, Virginia, 141, 6th, 2nd
Paths:
(US) Christian Moody, Oklahoma, dec 10-8
(11) Josh Terao, American, md 15-6
(14) Freddie Rodriguez, SIUE, tf 15-0
(10) Jack Mueller, Virginia, dec 7-0
(4) Darian Cruz, Lehigh, loss dec 6-3
(US) Christopher Carton, Iowa, md 13-4
(11) Randy Cruz, Lehigh, fall 4:36
(14) Thomas Thorn, Minnesota, dec 5-2
(10) Bryce Meredith, Wyoming, dec 10-7
(1) Dean Heil, Oklahoma State, loss dec 6-3
2018: Ronnie Perry, Lock Haven, 149, 15th, 2nd
Path:
(US) Cortlandt Schuyler, Lehigh, md 11-3
(2) Brandon Sorensen, Iowa, dec 3-2
(10) Jason Tsirtsis, Arizona State, dec 7-4
(11) Matthew Kolodzik, Princeton, dec 5-3
(1) Zain Retherford, Penn State, loss dec 6-2
2019: Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech, 165, 8th, 1st
Path:
(25) Cam Coy, Virginia, fall
(24) Cael McCormick, Army, dec 4-1
(1) Alex Marinelli, Iowa, dec 3-1
(2) Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State dec 7-1
2021: Shane Griffith, Stanford, 165, 8th, 1st
Path:
(25) Jake Tucker, Michigan State, dec 5-2
(9) Luke Weber, NDSU, dec 7-5
(1) Alex Marinelli, Iowa, dec 3-1
(3) Jake Wentzel, Pitt, dec 6-2
So, who's going to do the unthinkable this year?