2022 NCAA Championships Watch Party

What Seed Do Sleeper NCAA Finalists & Champs Historically Come From?

What Seed Do Sleeper NCAA Finalists & Champs Historically Come From?

Need a sleeper pick? Check out the data to see where in the bracket they're likely to come from.

Mar 16, 2022 by JD Rader
766. Sleepers & Dark Horses At Every Weight

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First and foremost a shoutout and thank you to Brock Hite for both the content idea and collecting most of the data. Every year one or two wrestlers completely shock the country and make the finals or even win it from the 6+ seed. This data set tracks the lowest-seeded finalist for the past 22 NCAA Championships. If anyone made the finals from a seed of ten or higher they were also included in the table.

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First and foremost a shoutout and thank you to Brock Hite for both the content idea and collecting most of the data. Every year one or two wrestlers completely shock the country and make the finals or even win it from the 6+ seed. This data set tracks the lowest-seeded finalist for the past 22 NCAA Championships. If anyone made the finals from a seed of ten or higher they were also included in the table.

YEARWRESTLERTEAMWEIGHTSEEDFINISHBRACKET
2021Shane GriffithStanford165 lbs8th1stTop
2019Mekhi LewisVirginia Tech165 lbs8th1stTop
2018Ronnie PerryLock Haven149lbs15th2ndBottom
2017Ethan LizakMinnesota125lbs6th2ndBottom
2017George DiCamilloVirginia141lbs6th2ndBottom
2016Bryce MeredithWyoming141lbs14th2ndBottom
2016Myles MartinOhio State174lbs11th1stBottom
2015Zeke MoiseyWest Virginia125lbsUS2ndBottom
2015Cody BrewerOklahoma133lbs13th1stTop
2014Joshua KindigOklahoma State149lbs11th2ndBottom
2013Michael McMullenNorthwestern285lbs5th2ndTop
2012Nico MegaludisPenn State125lbs10th2ndBottom
2012Brandon HatchettLehigh165lbs11th2ndBottom
2011Quentin WrightPenn State184lbs9th1stTop
2010Chase PamiCal Poly157lbs7th2ndBottom
2009Jarrod KingEdinboro165lbs12th1stTop
2008Jordan LeenCornell157lbs8th1stTop
2007Kurt BackesIowa State197lbs9th2ndTop
2006Brian StithArizona State157lbs10th2ndBottom
2005Joe JohnstonIowa157lbs8th2ndTop
2004Ryan FulsaasIowa197lbs10th2ndBottom
2003Carl FronhoferPitt174lbsUS2ndTop
2002Rob RohnLehigh184lbs8th1stTop
2001Pat QuirkIllinois197lbs7th2ndBottom
2000Carl PerryIllinois141lbs8th1stTop
2000Steve GarlandVirginia125lbs8th2ndTop
1999Tony DavisNorthern Iowa149lbs6th2ndBottom


Surprisingly, 33% of the time the low seed goes ahead and doesn't just make the finals, but win. Cody Brewer, out of the 13 seed was the lowest seed to win.

SEED# OF FINALS
8th7
6th3
11th3
10th3
US2
9th2
7th2
5th1
15th1
14th1
13th1
12th1


Now, let's take a look at weight.

WEIGHT# OF FINALS
165lbs4
157lbs4
125lbs4
197lbs3
149lbs3
141lbs3
184lbs2
174lbs2
285lbs1
133lbs1

It's unsurprising to see 285 at the bottom, but I would have expected 133 to be a little higher up on this list.

Now, let's take a look at paths. This data is only of the lowest-seeded finalist from each year. Additional double-digit seeds are not included. Surprisingly, most of the time (13/22) the low seed upsets either the 1 or 2 seed and then makes it to the finals. 

YearR32R16QuarterSemiAverage
1999201120714.5
200020912012.5
2001202021113.25
2002202020416
2003208201215
2004207238
200520201511.5
20062020201117.75
200720820413
2008202011213.25
200920204813
2010201022013
201120811210.25
201220203712.5
20132012419.25
2014206141513.75
2015152767.5
2016203627.75
20172011141013.75
2018202101110.75
201920201411.25
2021209138.25


Another shoutout to Brock Hite for collecting the information below.

1999: Tony Davis, Northern Iowa, 149, 6th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Stan Spoor, Clarion, dec 5-4

(11) Ryan Bernholz, Lehigh, md 11-2

(US) Marc Hoffer, American, dec 11-5

(7) Adam Tirapelle, Illinois, dec 8-3

(1) TJ Williams, Iowa, loss dec 5-3

2000: Steve Garland, Virginia, 125, 8th Seed, 2nd; Carl Perry, Illinois, 141, 8th Seed, 1st

Paths:

(US) Adrian Tramutola, Tennessee-Chattanooga, md 8-0

(9) Michael Kawamura, Arizona State, dec 7-3

(1) Jody Strittmatter, Iowa, dec 9-7 OT

(US) TJ Hill, Cal State-Fullerton, dec 6-5 TB

(2) Jeremy Hunter, Penn State, loss dec 7-3

(US) PJ Bory, Virginia, tf 18-2

(US) Jeremy Hart, Appalachian State, dec 9-7

(1) Doug Schwab, Iowa, dec 7-5

(4) Mark Angle, Clarion, dec 2-0

(2) Michael Lightner, Oklahoma, dec 5-3

2001: Pat Quirk, Illinois, 197, 8th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Dave Shunamon, Edinboro, dec 5-2

(US) Jason Payne, Northern Iowa, md 14-6

(2) Brad Vering, Nebraska, dec 8-4

(11) Mike Fickell, Pennsylvania, dec 8-4

(1) Mark Munoz, Oklahoma State, loss dec 5-3

2002: Rob Rohn, Lehigh, 184, 8th Seed, 1st

Path:

(US) Blake Kaplan, Ohio State, dec 8-4

(US) Josh Millard, Lock Haven, fall 0:25

(US) Ralph DeNisco, Wisconsin, fall 3:19

(4) Jessman Smith, Iowa, fall 2:57

(6) Josh Lambrecht, Oklahoma, fall 6:47

2003: Carl Fronhofer, Pitt, 174, Unseeded, 2nd 

Path:

(9) Blake Kaplan, Ohio State, fall 4:46

(US) Curtis Yeager, Millersville, md 11-3

(8) Brian Glynn, Illinois, dec 3-2tb

(US) Ralph Everett, Hofstra, dec 4-1

(12) Shane Webster, Oregon, dec 3-2

(3) Robbie Waller, Oklahoma, loss dec 7-2

2004: Ryan Fulsaas, Iowa, 197, 10th Seed, 2nd

Path:

Bye

(7) Chris Jones, Drexel, dec 3-1

(2) Chris Skretkowicz, Hofstra, dec 7-6

(3) Sean Stender, Northern Iowa, dec 8-7

(1) Damion Hahn, Minnesota, loss dec 6-2

2005: Joe Johnston, Iowa, 157, 8th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Kevin Ward, Oklahoma State, md 18-8

(US) CP Schlatter, Minnesota, dec 5-3

(1) Alex Tirapelle, Illinois, dec 6-5

(5) Jake Percival, Ohio, dec 9-8

(2) Ryan Bertin, Michigan, loss dec 8-5

2006: Brian Stith, Arizona State, 157, 10th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Jacob Yost, Tennessee-Chattanooga, dec 7-1 

(US) Tony Hook, Oregon State, dec 2-1TB

(US) Andrew Flanagan, Harvard, md 8-0

(11) Derek Zinck, Lehigh, dec 5-3

(5) Ben Cherrington, Boise State, loss dec 7-3

2007: Kurt Backes, Iowa State, 197, 9th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Jacob Bryce, North Dakota State, md 16-4

(8) Joel Flaggert, Oklahoma, dec 3-1OT

(US) Nick Roy, Rutgers, dec 5-3

(4) Phil Davis, Penn State, dec 5-4

(2) Josh Glenn, American, loss dec 6-4

2008: Jordan Leen, Cornell, 157, 8th Seed, 1st

Path:

(US) Ryan Hluschak, Drexel, dec 4-3

(US) Brian Letters, Maryland, dec 4-1

(1) Gregor Gillespie, Edinboro, dec 8-6

(12) Josh Zupancic, Stanford, dec 9-2

(2) Michael Poeta, Illinois, dec 5-4

2009: Jarrod King, Edinboro, 165, 12th Seed, 1st 

Path:

(US) Rex Kendle, Michigan State, fall 1:04

(US) Nick Amuchastegui, Stanford, dec 5-1

(4) Moza Fay, Northern Iowa, dec 12-5

(8) Jonathan Reeder, Iowa State, 6-6TB

(2) Andrew Howe, Wisconsin, dec 3-2

2010: Chase Pami, Cal Poly, 157, 7th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Kurt Kinser, Indiana, dec 3-2

(10) Shane Vernon, Oklahoma, dec 7-5

(2) Adam Hall, Boise State, dec 5-2

(US) Justin Lister, Binghamton, md 13-5

(1) JP O’Connor, Harvard, loss dec 6-4 

2011: Quentin Wright, Penn State, 184, 9th Seed, 1st

Path:

(US) Jon Fausey, Virginia, dec 8-4

(8) Kevin Steinhaus, Minnesota, dec 8-4

(1) Chris Honeycutt, Edinboro, dec 7-3

(12) Grant Gambrall, Iowa, fall 3:53

(2) Robert Hamlin, Lehigh, dec 5-2

2012: Brandon Hatchett, Lehigh, 165, 11th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) James Brundage, Rider, md 10-0

(US) Dallas Bailey, Oklahoma State, dec 4-2

(3) Andrew Sorenson, Iowa State, dec 7-3

(7) Josh Asper, Maryland, dec 5-4

(1) David Taylor, Penn State, loss tf 22-7

2013: Michael McMullen, Northwestern, 285, 5th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Dan Scherer, Stanford, dec 6-2

(12) Adam Chalfant, Indiana, dec 7-5

(4) Chad Hanke, Oregon State, dec 5-3

(1) Dom Bradley, Missouri, dec 3-1OT

(2) Anthony Nelson, Minnesota, loss dec 6-2

2014: Joshua Kindig, Oklahoma State, 149, 11th Seed, 2nd

Path:

(US) Ian Paddock, Ohio State, dec 9-4

(6) Jake Sueflohn, Nebraska, dec 7-5

(14) Scott Sakaguchi, Oregon State, dec 7-5

(15) Mitch Minotti, Lehigh, dec 5-2

(5) Jason Tsirtsis, Northwestern, loss dec 3-1OT

2015: Zeke Moisey, West Virginia, 125, Unseeded, 2nd

Path:

(15) Chasen Tolbert, Utah Valley, md 14-6

(2) Nahshon Garrett, Cornell, dec 5-2

(7) Edward Klimara, Oklahoma State, dec 5-2

(6) Thomas Gilman, Iowa, fall 0:52

(4) Nathan Tomasello, Ohio State, loss dec 9-5

2016: Bryce Meredith, Wyoming, 141, 14th, 2nd

Path:

(US) Robert Mathers, Arizona State, md 16-3

(3) Kevin Jack, NC State, dec 5-4

(6) Micah Jordan, Ohio State, dec 5-2

(2) Joey McKenna, Stanford, dec 5-3

(1) Dean Heil, Oklahoma State, loss dec 3-2

2017: Ethan Lizak, Minnesota, 125, 6th, 2nd; George DiCamillo, Virginia, 141, 6th, 2nd

Paths:

(US) Christian Moody, Oklahoma, dec 10-8

(11) Josh Terao, American, md 15-6

(14) Freddie Rodriguez, SIUE, tf 15-0

(10) Jack Mueller, Virginia, dec 7-0

(4) Darian Cruz, Lehigh, loss dec 6-3

(US) Christopher Carton, Iowa, md 13-4

(11) Randy Cruz, Lehigh, fall 4:36

(14) Thomas Thorn, Minnesota, dec 5-2

(10) Bryce Meredith, Wyoming, dec 10-7

(1) Dean Heil, Oklahoma State, loss dec 6-3

2018: Ronnie Perry, Lock Haven, 149, 15th, 2nd

Path:

(US) Cortlandt Schuyler, Lehigh, md 11-3

(2) Brandon Sorensen, Iowa, dec 3-2

(10) Jason Tsirtsis, Arizona State, dec 7-4

(11) Matthew Kolodzik, Princeton, dec 5-3

(1) Zain Retherford, Penn State, loss dec 6-2

2019: Mekhi Lewis, Virginia Tech, 165, 8th, 1st

Path:

(25) Cam Coy, Virginia, fall

(24) Cael McCormick, Army, dec 4-1

(1) Alex Marinelli, Iowa,  dec 3-1

(2) Vincenzo Joseph, Penn State dec 7-1

2021: Shane Griffith, Stanford, 165, 8th, 1st

Path:

(25) Jake Tucker, Michigan State, dec 5-2

(9) Luke Weber, NDSU, dec 7-5

(1) Alex Marinelli, Iowa, dec 3-1

(3) Jake Wentzel, Pitt, dec 6-2


So, who's going to do the unthinkable this year?